Choose overall levels of support for your candidate
% among white Democrats
% among black Democrats
% among other voters

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Do you see the D.C. mayor’s race as a cakewalk for Democrat Muriel Bowser? Or a fighting chance for Independent David Catania? Here are theoretical scenarios for how each could reach a winning 50 percent of the vote, and a chance for you to build your own.

Bowser 50-60-35

The advantage for Bowser is that Democrats dominate D.C. with three-quarters of registered voters. In past elections, she has been dominant in her home Ward 4, a key mayoral battleground.

A Bowser scenario: Black Democrats rally for Bowser, and she wins among white Democrats. Among Independents and Republicans, she earns enough support to deny her opponent a smashing win.

Catania 45-35-80

Catania’s advantage is that tens of thousands across the District have voted for him before in his four at-large city council wins. Although Independents and Republicans are only a quarter of registered voters, they can swing a close race if they turn out.

A Catania scenario: Surging turnout among Independents and Republicans matches that of Democrats, and Catania gets a lion’s share of their votes. He gets enough support among Democrats to make his opponent vulnerable.

You are the candidate 45-45-45

Change the settings below to see how varying levels of support among these three voter groups affects your chance to win. Hit 50 percent or higher to win.

NOTES: This election simulation is based on voter registration data, voting patterns in the prior D.C. mayoral election and on assumptions concerning how those patterns could change. Results in November will likely vary.