The 2014 mayor’s race is for an open seat, and two of the three candidates are well-known sitting city council members. Turnout has been trending down, and that could make the race more volatile.
The District's 103,000 registered Republicans and Independents account for almost a quarter of registered voters, enough to swing an election. If they voted.
Party Registered Percent -------------------------------- DEM 346703 76.27 IND 75468 16.60 REP 27423 6.03 STA 3632 0.80 OTH 1016 0.22 LIB 330 0.07 UNK 4 0.00In the last mayor's general election, turnout for Independent voters only about half that of Democrats. Republican turnout also lagged. For Catania, an Independent, to win would likely require a surge of Independent and Republican voting.
Black Democrats would likely form the base of a Bowser win in November. Yet in the April primary, Bowser lost in the District's 70 predominantly black precincts with only 35 percent of the vote. And the 24 percent turnout there was 13 points lower than in white precincts.
Votes for Bowser in 2014 Democratic primary Precincts --------- Predominantly black 34.8% Racially mixed 40.5% Predominantly white 56.7%
Democratic General primary election -------- --------- 1994 49.1% 51.5% 1998 32.1% 40.2% 2002 34.5% 36.7% 2006 34.2% 30.9% 2010 37.1% 30.0% 2014 26.9%
Democrats dominate the District with three-quarters of registered voters. In past elections, Bowser has been dominant in her home Ward 4, a key battleground in mayoral races.
The April Democratic primary was Bowser’s first city-wide race. Her 43 percent was lower than Marion Barry’s 47 percent Democratic mayoral primary win in 1992, when he was fresh out of prison. She lost in predominantly black and racially mixed precincts, but won in predominantly white ones.
A winning Bowser scenario: Black Democrats rally strong support for Bowser, and she at least ties among white Democrats. Among Independents and other voters, she earns enough support to deny her opponent a smashing win.
Tens of thousands across the District have voted for Catania before. He’s won, with a second-place finish, in four at-large council races, and got 57,000 votes in the last one in 2010.
The District’s 103,000 registered Independents and Republicans account for almost a quarter of potential voters, enough to swing an election, if they voted.
A winning Catania scenario: A surging turnout among independents and Republicans matches that of Democrats, and Catania gets a lion’s share of their votes. He gets enough support among Democrats to make his opponent vulnerable.
Note on the 2010 at-large race: Catania placed 2nd in every ward to Democrat Phil Mendelson. Catania polled ahead of Mendelson in only 3 of 143 precincts. Catania had more than half of Mendelson’s vote in only 67 precincts.
Age group & share of voters in primary 2010 2014 diff 18-34 17.7 18.3 +0.6 35-44 17.0 16.1 -0.9 45-54 18.2 17 -1.2 55-64 19.73 20.1 -0.4 65-over 27.4 26.3 -1.1
68,200 to win.
If turnout is 30% as in the 2010 general election,
this would be the most votes required to win. Votes for
a third-place candidate makes this number smaller.
One way to guess about likely voters is to look at
those who have voted before.
42,000 already for Bowser
Democrats who voted once for Bowser already this year in the primary
could give her most of the votes needed for a win.
48,104 more Democrats
These Democrats sat out the April primary, but they did vote
in the 2010 mayor's race and still are registered.
32,362 is 30% of non-Democrats
If Independents and Republicans also turn out at 30%, this
is how many would be voting. This would be a big change.
16,687 non-Democrats most likely
These voted in the last mayor's race and still are registered.
About a quarter of D.C. registered voters were not around to vote 2010. So this will be their first mayoral race. Many are young. Democrats dominate, but independents (No Party) are a significant group.
New voters by age agerange Voters Percent --------------------------------------- unknown 8019 7.1 0_17 79 0.1 18_24 24211 21.5 25_34 47160 42.0 35_44 14571 13.0 45_54 8745 7.8 55_64 5854 5.2 65_OVER 3789 3.4 New voters by party partyid Frequency Percent -------------------------------- DEM 76694 68.22 LIB 223 0.20 NO 26007 23.13 OTH 278 0.25 REP 8414 7.48 STA 812 0.72